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Political Probabilities

Data sourced from predictive markets and economic forecasts.
Analysts see a moderate chance of increased tariffs amid ongoing trade tensions.

Chance of Tariffs Increasing

Chance of Government Shutdown

Political

Probabilities

Data sourced from predictive markets and economic forecasts.

Analysts see a moderate chance of increased tariffs amid ongoing trade tensions.

Chance of Government Shutdown

Chance of Tariffs Increasing

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📝 2-10 Yield Curve

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Bear-Bull Scale

Each day, the market gets a Bear/Bull confidence score. Well, whenever Kevin decides to update it.

5.7/10

Data as for 11-5-2025

Broadly bullish corporate earnings outside consumer discretionary. However, liquidity issues / private credit are growing.

Trump-TACO Scale

Trump-TACO Scale.

"Trump always chickens out" score.

8.8/10

Data as for 11-5-2025

Trump pretty much full TACO on China, less Canada.

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